Look at the below map of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - Any identifiable characteristics you can find? Well, we can see that the kingdom is divided into 13 states, its capital Riyadh is situated at the centre, Red Sea is on the west, Persian Gulf is on the east etc.
But here may be you have missed something very important - why is their Eastern Province so large in area whereas they have maintained small states like Baha?
Though the ruling Saud dynasty has never conducted any population census on the basis of religion, it's true that the small Shiite Muslim population of KSA which is roughly 10-15% of the total KSA population lives mostly in the eastern cities like Dammam, Hufuf and other coastal towns of the Eastern Province and the major parts of the province are inhabited by the ruling Sunni people. From the beginning, this Shiite population has been an headache for the Saud dynasty which follows strict Wahhabi Islamic ideology and the dynasty's concerns about the Shiite population is due to the later's dissents in terms of being oppressed, lack of freedom to exercise their rituals, the differences in Islamic ideology and most importantly the ruling family believes that they are sympathized by their perceived enemy Republic of Iran which they believe tries to ignite rebellions against the kingdom.
The big size of the Eastern province is helping the royal family of KSA achieve its objectives to manage the situation. Though they are majority in the cities, as a province overall, the Shiite people are still minority there encircled by the Sunni people. So, it'll be very difficult for them to organize a secessionist movement if there is any possibility at all. Due to its wide geography, it'll be difficult to spread the rebellion propaganda across the state by preventing to allow them to gather in one place. And most importantly, one hypothetical situation, suppose the KSA becomes a democracy and state polls are being conducted there, still the council of Eastern Province will be governed by the majority Sunni there and how they have become majority. In no way, but due to the big size of the state which includes numerous Sunni villages outside the city limits and thus will help them outnumber the Shiite people.
2. Creating Smaller Regional Entities:
This is a reverse strategy. Partitioning of a big geographical region also proves sometimes effective to change the composition and to reduce the strength of a certain race or community. The big example is before us. In the post 2nd world war scenario, the bifurcation of Germany can be cited as an incident supporting the effectiveness of this mechanism. Though contemporary Germany does not regard the rise of German nationalism in back 1930's with great regards and reverence, if we consider the situation at that time when Berlin fell, we can't say that the nationalism died in one single day or year. So, to curb the spirits of German nationalism on the perspective of post world war scenario so that it could not emerge again and jeopardize the global power balance, this bifurcation seemed to be necessary for the big bosses at that time. I admit that Germany was bifurcated to serve the different strategic interests between USA and erstwhile USSR, it acted also as a point of common interest between both the parties.
3. Reorganizing or Restructuring Regional Entities:
In the beginning of the twentieth century, the British administration in India faced a very alarming and grave situation in the form of hard line revolutionaries who took up arms against them and at that time the centre of this hard line revolution was in Bengal. So, the British think tank decided to reorganize and restructure the shape of the Bengal province in such a way that the Bengali people turned into a minority in the newly reorganized formations. In 1905, Lord Curzon with an objective of implementing this declared partition of Bengal.
In the new structure, it was decided that the eastern part of Bengal would be separated and there Assam would be added - so, not only the Bengali people would be not only secluded from their brothers living in the western part, but also the demographics would be such that Bengali people would lose their stronghold as a majority and if not so, their quantitative strength at least would be reduced; on the other hand the with the western part of Bengal, Bihar and Orissa would be included to create the same effects as in the eastern part.
4. Infiltration based Manipulation to Change the Composition:
In the present scenario, the dream of a free independent country named East Turkestan seems to be very difficult to get realized. I know from the Uighur peoples' perspective, it sounds very demotivating but it's a fact.
In the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of PRC, the Uyghur people are fighting for a dream, a dream of an independent country named East Turkestan but they have not yet been very much successful. There are many reasons to this and frankly speaking, as days go by, their dream will be gradually destroyed. I am saying this from one crucial view point. To make the Uyghur people a minority in their own homeland, the Chinese leadership is relentlessly encouraging the Han Chinese people to settle there and the consequence is pretty much clear to all. Just as an example, if you check the demographic composition of Urumqi, the capital city of the region, the percentage of Han people is increasing continuously.
5. Expulsion & Purging:
Expulsion & purging of a certain segment of people from their own homeland is a very old type strategy and frankly speaking it's very difficult to carry out although citations from the pages of history are not a few. The Jews are the well known victims of this strategy. Not in most recent times, but in last century there was one - the famous Armenian exodus and genocide conducted by the Turkish regime.
In the last century, there is one example from the sub-continent. In 1947, the demographics of new born India and Pakistan already faced a dramatic change by voluntary exodus and killings of the minority people on both sides. Still in erstwhile East Pakistan, there was a significant percentage of Hindu minority, a large portion of which was killed in Operation Searchlight conducted by the Pakistani Army in 1971 and the rest fled to India. So, if you see the pre-1971 demographics composition of Bangladesh and compare with the present situation, the difference in percentage of Hindu population that time with the same as of now, is not at all insignificant. If today Bangladesh decides to be a Islamic Republic and wants to implement Sharia rule, the opposition from their Hindu community will not be able to create even a small ripple, fierce opposition is a reverie. They practically don't exist there in terms of numbers.
Apart from the above five, there are a few more tactics - one is exerting control through the diaspora stationed in a geography. Diaspora never have an ambition of changing the host demographics but of course gradually by being stronger, they aim to have a stake in decision making particularly if the decision involves any policy or strategy towards their origin country.Today it's difficult for USA to declare war against India. With many other reasons, one is the strong Indian lobby composed of Indian Americans there who are actively involved in formulating US policies. Well, from Indian perspective, my personal opinion is that this just happened and it was not devised by the Indian leadership - may be I am wrong. But many analysts say PRC leadership is dam serious about experimenting this technique on USA. Anyway, this technique do not work for centuries after centuries because at one point of time diaspora gets completely assimilated into the mainstream society. So, the Indian American whose parents or may be the grand parents settled in USA feels for India but his grandchild will carry that - well, there is a serious doubt.
But here may be you have missed something very important - why is their Eastern Province so large in area whereas they have maintained small states like Baha?
Well, the size and shape of any geographical region like states depend on many factors like its history and legacy, communities living there, ethnicity, language (as in case of India), administrative conveniences etc. However, it's a well known fact that to provide better service and administration to its citizens, smaller states are better to be managed.
Then why has KSA maintained such a big state of Eastern Province? The rationale may be a set of multiple factors like from historical period it has been a kingdom which was annexed into KSA, the economy is through out the region same etc. Of all these, my focus will be on one aspect only i.e the D factor or the demographics factor which is again a composition of religion, ethnicity, language, culture etc.
The experimentation on demographics by the politicians and the state leaders, in terms of division, manipulation to exert control and to establish stronger rule is not a new thing. In this article, I would like to discuss how to control and manipulate demographic factors in favor of the central authority or any foreign state.
1. Maintaining Big Regional Entities:
In a pocket kind scenario where a certain characteristically different community concentrate in small pockets which are the parts of a big state and outside those pockets the majority community resides, the most advisable is to maintain the big shape as it is. In case of KSA Eastern Province, this rationale is in place. Let's see how.Though the ruling Saud dynasty has never conducted any population census on the basis of religion, it's true that the small Shiite Muslim population of KSA which is roughly 10-15% of the total KSA population lives mostly in the eastern cities like Dammam, Hufuf and other coastal towns of the Eastern Province and the major parts of the province are inhabited by the ruling Sunni people. From the beginning, this Shiite population has been an headache for the Saud dynasty which follows strict Wahhabi Islamic ideology and the dynasty's concerns about the Shiite population is due to the later's dissents in terms of being oppressed, lack of freedom to exercise their rituals, the differences in Islamic ideology and most importantly the ruling family believes that they are sympathized by their perceived enemy Republic of Iran which they believe tries to ignite rebellions against the kingdom.
The big size of the Eastern province is helping the royal family of KSA achieve its objectives to manage the situation. Though they are majority in the cities, as a province overall, the Shiite people are still minority there encircled by the Sunni people. So, it'll be very difficult for them to organize a secessionist movement if there is any possibility at all. Due to its wide geography, it'll be difficult to spread the rebellion propaganda across the state by preventing to allow them to gather in one place. And most importantly, one hypothetical situation, suppose the KSA becomes a democracy and state polls are being conducted there, still the council of Eastern Province will be governed by the majority Sunni there and how they have become majority. In no way, but due to the big size of the state which includes numerous Sunni villages outside the city limits and thus will help them outnumber the Shiite people.
2. Creating Smaller Regional Entities:
This is a reverse strategy. Partitioning of a big geographical region also proves sometimes effective to change the composition and to reduce the strength of a certain race or community. The big example is before us. In the post 2nd world war scenario, the bifurcation of Germany can be cited as an incident supporting the effectiveness of this mechanism. Though contemporary Germany does not regard the rise of German nationalism in back 1930's with great regards and reverence, if we consider the situation at that time when Berlin fell, we can't say that the nationalism died in one single day or year. So, to curb the spirits of German nationalism on the perspective of post world war scenario so that it could not emerge again and jeopardize the global power balance, this bifurcation seemed to be necessary for the big bosses at that time. I admit that Germany was bifurcated to serve the different strategic interests between USA and erstwhile USSR, it acted also as a point of common interest between both the parties.
3. Reorganizing or Restructuring Regional Entities:
In the beginning of the twentieth century, the British administration in India faced a very alarming and grave situation in the form of hard line revolutionaries who took up arms against them and at that time the centre of this hard line revolution was in Bengal. So, the British think tank decided to reorganize and restructure the shape of the Bengal province in such a way that the Bengali people turned into a minority in the newly reorganized formations. In 1905, Lord Curzon with an objective of implementing this declared partition of Bengal.
In the new structure, it was decided that the eastern part of Bengal would be separated and there Assam would be added - so, not only the Bengali people would be not only secluded from their brothers living in the western part, but also the demographics would be such that Bengali people would lose their stronghold as a majority and if not so, their quantitative strength at least would be reduced; on the other hand the with the western part of Bengal, Bihar and Orissa would be included to create the same effects as in the eastern part.
4. Infiltration based Manipulation to Change the Composition:
In the present scenario, the dream of a free independent country named East Turkestan seems to be very difficult to get realized. I know from the Uighur peoples' perspective, it sounds very demotivating but it's a fact.
In the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of PRC, the Uyghur people are fighting for a dream, a dream of an independent country named East Turkestan but they have not yet been very much successful. There are many reasons to this and frankly speaking, as days go by, their dream will be gradually destroyed. I am saying this from one crucial view point. To make the Uyghur people a minority in their own homeland, the Chinese leadership is relentlessly encouraging the Han Chinese people to settle there and the consequence is pretty much clear to all. Just as an example, if you check the demographic composition of Urumqi, the capital city of the region, the percentage of Han people is increasing continuously.
5. Expulsion & Purging:
Expulsion & purging of a certain segment of people from their own homeland is a very old type strategy and frankly speaking it's very difficult to carry out although citations from the pages of history are not a few. The Jews are the well known victims of this strategy. Not in most recent times, but in last century there was one - the famous Armenian exodus and genocide conducted by the Turkish regime.
In the last century, there is one example from the sub-continent. In 1947, the demographics of new born India and Pakistan already faced a dramatic change by voluntary exodus and killings of the minority people on both sides. Still in erstwhile East Pakistan, there was a significant percentage of Hindu minority, a large portion of which was killed in Operation Searchlight conducted by the Pakistani Army in 1971 and the rest fled to India. So, if you see the pre-1971 demographics composition of Bangladesh and compare with the present situation, the difference in percentage of Hindu population that time with the same as of now, is not at all insignificant. If today Bangladesh decides to be a Islamic Republic and wants to implement Sharia rule, the opposition from their Hindu community will not be able to create even a small ripple, fierce opposition is a reverie. They practically don't exist there in terms of numbers.
Apart from the above five, there are a few more tactics - one is exerting control through the diaspora stationed in a geography. Diaspora never have an ambition of changing the host demographics but of course gradually by being stronger, they aim to have a stake in decision making particularly if the decision involves any policy or strategy towards their origin country.Today it's difficult for USA to declare war against India. With many other reasons, one is the strong Indian lobby composed of Indian Americans there who are actively involved in formulating US policies. Well, from Indian perspective, my personal opinion is that this just happened and it was not devised by the Indian leadership - may be I am wrong. But many analysts say PRC leadership is dam serious about experimenting this technique on USA. Anyway, this technique do not work for centuries after centuries because at one point of time diaspora gets completely assimilated into the mainstream society. So, the Indian American whose parents or may be the grand parents settled in USA feels for India but his grandchild will carry that - well, there is a serious doubt.
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